> Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far
surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever.
That's a pretty early definition of what we now call ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence). In the next paragraph the author goes to describe what we today call the "singularity" (ASI designing better ASI). But that term seems to be associated to some very weird communities, so the concept is relegated to sci-fi. Even though we're already seeing signs of things we have working towards this. Interesting to see that in the past "Man" was more optimistic :)
> It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an
ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence
explosion.”
Well, that didn't happen.
> The
first ultraintelligent machine will need to be ultraparallel, and is likely
to be achieved with the help of a very large artificial neural net.
Right on, that we have.
> The
required high degree of connectivity might be attained with the help
of microminiature radio transmitters and receivers.
Hahaha, this is straight out of 60s-70s sci-fi, where their best futuristic interfaces were smaller CRT screens / flashy keys, etc.
> The first ultraintelligent machine will be educated partly by means of
positive and negative reinforcement. The task of education will be
eased if the machine is somewhat of a robot, sinae the activity of a
robot is concrete. [...] the machine will be
able to lem from experience, by means of positive and negative reinforcement, and the instruction of the machine will resemble that of a
child.
Heh, nice early insights. They missed the how, but RL is the thing that ultimately made it "click" and be useful. And there is increasing talk about embodiment and how that'll help the next iteration of models. So there's that.
Overall a cool read. I skipped most of the middle part, only skimming for things here and there.
>> It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.”
> Well, that didn't happen.
The faster things happen, the higher the speed-of-progress expectation bar gets raised. This is how objectively compounding progress gets interpreted subjectively as linear, or even as a stall. By people not measuring against the time frame of several decades, or centuries, to give the moment any actual context.
Not only that, but in my cynical eyes the proliferation of LLMs has triggered a stupidity explosion. Either that, or it just made it blatantly obvious by how much stupidity we have been surrounded the whole time without realizing it. No other development demonstrated so clearly that the dark ages where we believed in sorcery and miracles have never really ended.
The military had stealth aircraft in the 70's. I'll bet they had LLM or better in the 80's and the tech we have now is the consumer-grade version they seeded into industry in the 2020's.
That's a pretty early definition of what we now call ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence). In the next paragraph the author goes to describe what we today call the "singularity" (ASI designing better ASI). But that term seems to be associated to some very weird communities, so the concept is relegated to sci-fi. Even though we're already seeing signs of things we have working towards this. Interesting to see that in the past "Man" was more optimistic :)
> It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.”
Well, that didn't happen.
> The first ultraintelligent machine will need to be ultraparallel, and is likely to be achieved with the help of a very large artificial neural net.
Right on, that we have.
> The required high degree of connectivity might be attained with the help of microminiature radio transmitters and receivers.
Hahaha, this is straight out of 60s-70s sci-fi, where their best futuristic interfaces were smaller CRT screens / flashy keys, etc.
> The first ultraintelligent machine will be educated partly by means of positive and negative reinforcement. The task of education will be eased if the machine is somewhat of a robot, sinae the activity of a robot is concrete. [...] the machine will be able to lem from experience, by means of positive and negative reinforcement, and the instruction of the machine will resemble that of a child.
Heh, nice early insights. They missed the how, but RL is the thing that ultimately made it "click" and be useful. And there is increasing talk about embodiment and how that'll help the next iteration of models. So there's that.
Overall a cool read. I skipped most of the middle part, only skimming for things here and there.
> Well, that didn't happen.
The faster things happen, the higher the speed-of-progress expectation bar gets raised. This is how objectively compounding progress gets interpreted subjectively as linear, or even as a stall. By people not measuring against the time frame of several decades, or centuries, to give the moment any actual context.
> Well, that didn't happen.
Not only that, but in my cynical eyes the proliferation of LLMs has triggered a stupidity explosion. Either that, or it just made it blatantly obvious by how much stupidity we have been surrounded the whole time without realizing it. No other development demonstrated so clearly that the dark ages where we believed in sorcery and miracles have never really ended.
The military had stealth aircraft in the 70's. I'll bet they had LLM or better in the 80's and the tech we have now is the consumer-grade version they seeded into industry in the 2020's.
and got upset when Anthropic didn't want to let them use their LLM